SPC AC 060537
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1237 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MN/WRN
   WI/IA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW -- INITIALLY OVER MT/WY/CO -- IS FORECAST TO
   SHIFT QUICKLY ENEWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
   THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.  
   
   AS THIS OCCURS...SUBSTANTIAL CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL/N CENTRAL CONUS...WITH THE LOW SHIFTING FROM NEB INTO SRN MN
   THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN INTO THE WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY
   07/12.  THIS LOW -- AND THE ASSOCIATED SWWD-TRAILING COLD FRONT --
   SHOULD FOCUS A LINE OF VIGOROUS/SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON
   INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
   
   ELSEWHERE...T.D. 10 IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NNWWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF
   OF MEXICO TOWARD S TX -- POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING TO TROPICAL STORM
   LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
   
   ...SRN MN AND PARTS OF WI SWWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY REGION...
   CAPPING LAYER OF WARM AIR IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LEVEL IS FORECAST
   ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS A DEEPENING
   CYCLONE SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY AND INTO SRN MN. 
   COOLING ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME CAPE DEVELOPMENT ABOVE THE
   WARM LAYER...WHILE FLOW FIELD THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE
   TROPOSPHERE STRENGTHENS.
   
   AFOREMENTIONED CAPPING SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF
   THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...STRONG UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   ROBUST/COMPACT UPPER SYSTEM -- FOCUSED AT THE SURFACE NEAR THE LOW
   AND ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT -- SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW STORMS
   TO DEVELOP IN THE ERN SD/SRN MN/IA VICINITY...AND THEN SWWD ACROSS
   NWRN MO/KS.  WHILE WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA --
   FEATURING SUBSTANTIAL VEERING/STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT -- WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...LINEAR FORCING AND DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR
   CAPPING SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
   IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE...GROWING UPSCALE INTO A MORE LINEAR
   CONFIGURATION RATHER QUICKLY AFTER INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT.  THUS
   -- WHILE SOME TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS IA AND NWD/NWWD
   TO THE N OF THE LOW/WARM FRONT WHERE ELY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
   EXIST...MAIN THREATS WILL LIKELY BE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS.  FARTHER SWWD ALONG THE FRONT...STORMS WHICH DEVELOP ACROSS
   KS AND VICINITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS VIGOROUS GIVEN WEAKER SHEAR
   PROFILES.  STILL...ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCING BRIEF
   GUSTY WINDS AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL.  
   
   STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE ADVANCING
   FRONT...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND GRADUAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
   CAPPING...A DECREASING TREND IN STORM ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
   POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED.
   
   ...COASTAL SRN/SERN TX...
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION #10 HAS FORMED IN THE SWRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND
   IS FORECAST TO APPROACH S TX LATER IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD.  AS THIS
   OCCURS...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD COULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT
   WEAK UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE
   BANDS SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM.  THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
   TORNADO PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA.
   
   ..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/06/2010
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z