The National Hurricane Center has played Erika very cautiously and with good understanding. There are a lot of inconsistencies between various forecast model guidance. The latest official forecast track issued by NHC shows that narrow black line move in a west-northwest direction, but Erika has decided once again to play by her own rules.

The title is a bit misleading, this post couldn’t obviously provide a detailed analysis of the entire tropical climatology for September.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami just issued Tropical Discussion #2 on Tropical Storm Erika and its pretty much a repeat of the first discussion. But really interest me is the official NHC forecast verses the HWRF and the GFDL model forecast (which have been fairly accurate so far this season).

The following is real – I could make this up if I tried! It is an Area Forecast Discussion issued by National Weather Service Meteorologist – Gino Izzi, Sr. Forecaster, NWS Chicago/Romeoville. Introduction made, I leave you to read “Ode to Summer”, by Meteorologist Izzi:

The 5th named storm of the 2009 Atlantic Tropical Season is now Tropical Storm Erika. The NHC forecast graphic below show the forecast track of Erika and keep the storm forecast as a tropical storm.

The National Hurricane Center and USAF Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are currently investigating an area about 260 miles east of the Leeward Islands to determine whether or not a tropical cyclone has formed in the system currently known as Invest94l.

Jimena is likely to wreck havoc on the southern Baja Peninsula in the coming days and it is a possibility that Jimena could be a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale when it does make landfall – a scary situation if you happen to live in that part of Mexico.

Earlier today following a US Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance flight into Hurricane Jimena off the southwestern tip of the Baja Peninsula, the National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL announced that Jimena was a strong category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Intensity Scale with winds at 155 mph.

The life and times of Hurricane Bill are about to come to an end as Bill starts his final track into the North Atlantic. And, with cooler waters ahead, it’s a matter of hours before Bill starts to gradually decrease in strength and become extratropical.

Hurricane forecasting models indeed seem to be handling the long-term forecast tracks of tropical systems, including major hurricanes quite well this season. There has been very little change to Bill’s forecast track over the past few days.

As a storm chaser I’m use to driving endless miles in search for photogenic storms. But one of the perks of having a home in Oklahoma is that on occasion great storms come to you, as was the case last night when I took these lightning photos.

Recently, I have had a few bad experiences with television media companies, as well as print media companies concerning the ability to sell a product – either video or prints. I thought maybe I was doing something wrong; perhaps I was out pricing myself (even though I consider my prices to be extremely decent). I’ve been doing this for years, but it is a quickly changing market.

A tornado has been reported and has damaged several buildings just north of downtown Minneapolis. At 2:11 local National Weather Service meteorologist say the tornado was reported by the public and has been confirmed.

While the Atlantic Hurricane Season is in full swing, a strong system is moving through the plains and into the Ohio Valley. The Storm Predication Center has issued a Tornado Watch for extreme southeast Iowa, west central and northwest Illinois, and extreme northwest Missouri.

Hurricane Bill continues to intensify as it reached Category 4 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale earlier today. The forecast track has changed little and Bill is still expected to move between Bermuda and the United States while remaining at sea. Even though the hurricane is expected to remain at sea, interest along the East Coast should monitor Bill’s progress, as well as should Bermuda.