The National Hurricane Center has played Erika very cautiously and with good understanding. There are a lot of inconsistencies between various forecast model guidance. The latest official forecast track issued by NHC shows that narrow black line move in a west-northwest direction, but Erika has decided once again to play by her own rules.

The title is a bit misleading, this post couldn’t obviously provide a detailed analysis of the entire tropical climatology for September.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami just issued Tropical Discussion #2 on Tropical Storm Erika and its pretty much a repeat of the first discussion. But really interest me is the official NHC forecast verses the HWRF and the GFDL model forecast (which have been fairly accurate so far this season).

The 5th named storm of the 2009 Atlantic Tropical Season is now Tropical Storm Erika. The NHC forecast graphic below show the forecast track of Erika and keep the storm forecast as a tropical storm.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Ana which is located about 710 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands. And, on Tropical Storm Bill which is located about 905 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

The Atlantic Basin is alive! The National Hurricane Center named Tropical Storm Bill in their afternoon update.

The National Hurricane Center has had some fun with Invest99l, which became Tropical Depression Two, which was then downgraded to an Invest after a few days, and then upgraded back to Tropical Depression Two and then just this morning upgraded to the first named storm in the Atlantic Basin for the 2009 Hurricane Season – Tropical Storm Ana.