The National Hurricane Center has downgraded Erika to a tropical depression, and it is expected that the storm will be further reduced to a mere low within a day. NHC’s wording is pretty straight-forward in that they do not believe that Erika will be able to regain any organized activity and restrengthen. And, kudos to NHC forecasters for going against the hurricane model guidance and getting it right.

The National Hurricane Center has played Erika very cautiously and with good understanding. There are a lot of inconsistencies between various forecast model guidance. The latest official forecast track issued by NHC shows that narrow black line move in a west-northwest direction, but Erika has decided once again to play by her own rules.

The title is a bit misleading, this post couldn’t obviously provide a detailed analysis of the entire tropical climatology for September.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami just issued Tropical Discussion #2 on Tropical Storm Erika and its pretty much a repeat of the first discussion. But really interest me is the official NHC forecast verses the HWRF and the GFDL model forecast (which have been fairly accurate so far this season).

The 5th named storm of the 2009 Atlantic Tropical Season is now Tropical Storm Erika. The NHC forecast graphic below show the forecast track of Erika and keep the storm forecast as a tropical storm.

The National Hurricane Center and USAF Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are currently investigating an area about 260 miles east of the Leeward Islands to determine whether or not a tropical cyclone has formed in the system currently known as Invest94l.

Jimena is likely to wreck havoc on the southern Baja Peninsula in the coming days and it is a possibility that Jimena could be a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale when it does make landfall – a scary situation if you happen to live in that part of Mexico.

Earlier today following a US Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance flight into Hurricane Jimena off the southwestern tip of the Baja Peninsula, the National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL announced that Jimena was a strong category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Intensity Scale with winds at 155 mph.

The life and times of Hurricane Bill are about to come to an end as Bill starts his final track into the North Atlantic. And, with cooler waters ahead, it’s a matter of hours before Bill starts to gradually decrease in strength and become extratropical.

Hurricane forecasting models indeed seem to be handling the long-term forecast tracks of tropical systems, including major hurricanes quite well this season. There has been very little change to Bill’s forecast track over the past few days.

A tornado has been reported and has damaged several buildings just north of downtown Minneapolis. At 2:11 local National Weather Service meteorologist say the tornado was reported by the public and has been confirmed.

While the Atlantic Hurricane Season is in full swing, a strong system is moving through the plains and into the Ohio Valley. The Storm Predication Center has issued a Tornado Watch for extreme southeast Iowa, west central and northwest Illinois, and extreme northwest Missouri.

Hurricane Bill continues to intensify as it reached Category 4 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale earlier today. The forecast track has changed little and Bill is still expected to move between Bermuda and the United States while remaining at sea. Even though the hurricane is expected to remain at sea, interest along the East Coast should monitor Bill’s progress, as well as should Bermuda.

Today was a very exciting day for Hurricane Bill as the Category 2 hurricane developed a well pronounced eye and exhibited great symmetrical structure with low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow channels giving Hurricane Bill a nice buzz saw appearance.

This morning the National Hurricane Center made a very expected announcement – Bill became the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season.