Long track tornadoes, large hail and high winds are expected today across portions of the deep south. This may be one of those events that catches many people off guard – those are the types of events that end up with a death toll.

One of the most important tools that convective forecasters have is the Skew-T/Log-P Diagram. It is a thermodynamic chart that allows forecasters to view real information about the state of the atmosphere from the surface level all the way to 100 millibars.

Things are getting a bit punchy in Oklahoma at this hour. SPC issued a Mesoscale Discussion just a short time ago – Tornado Watch will likely follow shortly.

There is a Moderate Risk for severe storms this morning spanning across much of the south as a major tornadic event is currently organizing into what appears will be a widespread event.

The GFS is hinting on what could be a major event set to take place early next week in the Central Plains.

There is a very slight chance for tornadoes today across parts of the South and along the Gulf Coast. A 55-65 knot westernly flow in the 700-500 mb level combined with steep mid-level lapse rates and increasing moisture will likely create severe storms anywhere from extreme East Texas to points E/NE later today and through tonight. Most likely threats will be severe hail, strong straight line winds, but even though this appears to be an MCS event, any storms that develop will have a small potential for tornadoes.