Jimena is likely to wreck havoc on the southern Baja Peninsula in the coming days and it is a possibility that Jimena could be a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale when it does make landfall – a scary situation if you happen to live in that part of Mexico.

It is more troublesome for the NHC to forecast and monitor storms that form in the Pacific Basin as opposed to those that form in the Atlantic Basin. First and foremost – the strongest tool that the NHC has at their disposal is the Hurricane Hunters, which are based primarily along the Gulf Coast. While the Hurricane Hunters fly all over the Atlantic Basin to investigate storms, it takes more time and resources to get such aircraft down to places such as the Pacific Ocean off the western coast of Mexico. It wasn’t until today that the first flight flew into Jimena to investigate the storm, and they found the storm stronger than what NHC had expected it to be.

The Hurricane Hunters are not the only tool that is used by the NHC of course, they have several great remote sensing applications and platforms that they can use, such as GOES satellites, the TRMM satellite, QuickSCAT and when the storm gets closer to land and within range Doppler radar. However, it is fair to say that weather radar that is used in Mexico isn’t up to par with the American WSR-88D network that Americans are accustom too.

Here is a QuickSCAT image of Jimena, so you can get an idea of what data the satellite provides forecasters:

The downside to the above image is that all winds greater than 50 knots are colored black, that’s only about 58 mph and so when we’re talking major hurricane, it really isn’t of much use.

GOES satellites are a major help to forecasters since we can see in near real-time what the storm physically looks like, as well as get a good idea on the temperature processes happening within the storm. But once again, weather satellites have several downfalls and so forecasters really need a person inside the storm measuring things like wind speeds and pressure – hence, the Hurricane Hunters.

The Hurricane Hunter flight that was just completed today for example measured the minimum pressure inside Jimena at 931 mb – which is extremely low. Hurricane Katrina by comparison had a minimum central pressure of 902 mb at it’s strongest point, and Hurricane Ike had a minimum pressure of 935 mb. So, Hurricane Jimena currently stands between Katrina and Ike – that’s a really strong storm! And, it’s currently forecast to gain even more strength before reaching land.

No doubt about it – if you live on the Baja Peninsula and you’re reading this right now – you shouldn’t be. You should rather be thinking (or acting) about evacuating and protecting life at this point.

Tags: hurricane, jimena