This morning the National Hurricane Center made a very expected announcement – Bill became the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

As of 18Z, Bill was located at 14.30N 45.97W and is stengthening as it moves towards the west-northwest at 18 mph.

So the question is – will Hurricane Bill (or as we like to call him around here – “Buzz Saw Bill”) become the first US landfall hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season? And the answer is – probably not.

The forecast guidance models, especially the GFDL and the HWRF all push Bill towards the north and keep it out to sea, with its primary land threat becoming Bermuda before it gets caught up in the ridging and pushed back to the north-northeast to suffer an extratropical cold death at sea.

Bill is forecast to become a major hurricane of at least Category 3 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale, but only appears to threaten shipping at the foreseeable future.

Claudette Slides Home, Dies on the Plate

Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall around 0510Z along the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach Florida. Claudette was responsible for a few brief tornadoes in southern Florida yesterday with a confirmed sighting by the public in Charlotte County and another storm prompted a tornado warning in eastern Pasco County. There were also reports of power outages around Panama City, FL shortly before landfall while Claudette was likely at her strongest with maximum sustained winds offshore near 50 mph. Once Claudette came ashore she began degrading very quickly. With little severe weather occurring around the landfall area, however heavy rains and some inland flooding are possible with any landfalling tropical cyclone.

Tropical Depression Ana

Tropical Storm Ana has again became Tropical Depression Ana yesterday and there is little hope for Ana to regain her strength and organization. The National Hurricane Center has all but killed off Ana officially with reports. Earlier, hurricane forecasters stated that “if there was a center to Ana at all, it passed south of Buoy 42060 around 0830Z” and that the NHC would continue to issue advisories on Ana based on some possible new convection near this center – at least until the Hurricane Hunters investigate the system later this afternoon. I suspect that if the recon flights are unable to find the center of this now “possible tropical wave” that the NHC will discontinue advisory products on Ana – at least for the time being.

The area of interest associated with Ana is forecast to make a pass over the Dominican Republic before entering the Florida Straits and trailing just north and along the coast of Cuba. It will likely then pass over the Florida Keys and move north once it enters the Gulf of Mexico trailing up the western edge of Florida. If during that time conditions improve Ana would then be “re-born” – very possibly with the same name.

Hurricane Season is always interesting for a variety of reasons! What a difference a few days can make. But the big story right now is Bill and Hurricane Bill is very likely going to become a monster of a storm. But as stated, there is no threat at the moment to any areas of land. So Florida can rest easy on this one!

That being said, wind surfers get ready – even though Bill should remain at sea, there should still be some good wave action along the western Florida coast later in the week. And, here is a photo of yours truly digging some waves during Tropical Storm Ernesto a few years ago at Fort Lauderdale Beach.

Tags: hurricane