17Z (1:00 pm EDT) UPDATE:
Update from Hurricane Hunter Recon Flight.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 16:55Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Tropical Depression: Number 4 (flight originating in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 02
A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 16:43:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°04′N 84°56′W (29.0667N 84.9333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 88 miles (142 km) to the SSE (150°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 754m (2,474ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the WNW (285°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 72° at 28kts (From the ENE at ~ 32.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the WNW (302°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg) – Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 767m (2,516ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 766m (2,513ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990′s or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 28kts (~ 32.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 16:34:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 54kts (~ 62.1mph) in the northeast quadrant at 16:44:40Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Special Notes:
- If this vortex is from approximately the mid 1990′s or earlier, the “fix level” is properly decoded as “Other”. Meaning, the level is not 1500ft, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb, or 200mb, but might not necessarily be 925mb. In vortex messages since approximately the mid 1990′s, the number “9″ in the vortex for this section explicitly decodes as 925mb and “NA” means “Other”.
General Notes About Vortex Messages:
- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (NHC advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)
- The maximum flight level temperature outside the eye (item I.) “is taken just outside the central region of a cyclone (i.e., just outside the eyewall or just beyond the maximum wind band). This temperature may not be the highest recorded on the inbound leg but is representative of the environmental temperature just outside the central region of the storm.”
- The maximum flight level temperature inside the eye (item J.) is the “maximum temperature observed within 5 nm of the center fix coordinates. If a higher temperature is observed at a location more than 5 nm away from the flight level center (item BRAVO), it is reported in Remarks, including bearing and distance from the flight level center.”
(Quotes from National Hurricane Operations Plan – NHOP)
16:15Z (12:15 pm EDT) UPDATE:
TD Four Becomes Tropical Storm Claudette. US Landfall Imminent.
The National Hurricane Center has officially upgraded T.D. Four to Tropical Storm Claudette based on indications from Doppler radar that surface winds have increased to 40 MPH. Claudette is located at 28.8N 84.7W and nearing the Florida Panhandle.
A Hurricane Hunter recon flight (AF304) is currently in progress investigating Tropical Storm Claudette.
09:02Z UPDATE: Invest 91L is now officially Tropical Depression Four. However, according ONLY to KTBW (Tampa) NWS Radar – base velocity is showing winds in TD4 at 35 knots, which is 40 MPH and at Tropical Storm Strength.
There is a high probability that TD Four will become Tropical Storm Claudette. Here is the Graphical Landfall Forecast based on the latest official data from the NHC. Blue outline indicates tropical storm force winds:
08:22Z UPDATE: Several track guidance models such as the GFDL and HWRF are forecasting landfall of this system as a tropical storm in the Florida Panhandle near Panama City within the next 20-24 hours.
Tampa – The National Hurricane Center has given a greater than 50 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation for an area of low pressure located just 80 miles southwest of the Tampa Bay area.
In thier 2 a.m. update, the NHC reported that satellite and radar data indicated a small area of low pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, centered about 80 miles southwest of Tampa. The system was becoming better organized and may be developing a closed surface circulation. Conditions are favorable for additional development and there is a high chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone sometime today.
This system is expected to move northwestward or north-northwestward at about 15 MPH today. Interest along the Gulf Coast of Florida should closely monitor the progress of this system.
Tampa Bay radar from 2:49 a.m.
Two tropical storms are presently in the Atlantic, both were named on August 15th.
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Ana which is located about 710 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands. And, on Tropical Storm Bill which is located about 905 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.
Tags: hurricane
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