Things are getting a bit punchy in Oklahoma at this hour. SPC issued a Mesoscale Discussion just a short time ago – Tornado Watch will likely follow shortly. Here is the MD:
Mesoscale Discussion
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 PM CDT THU APR 09 2009 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 091747Z - 092015Z SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER E CNTRL OK BY 20-21Z. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 19-20Z. THIS AFTERNOON A SHARPENING DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN SW KS SEWD THROUGH CNTRL OK THEN SWWD THROUGH N CNTRL AND W CNTRL TX. EAST OF THE DRYLINE...MULTILAYER CLOUD DECK WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS ADVANCING RAPIDLY EAST...ALLOWING FOR A CORRIDOR OF PARTIAL CLEARING AND DIABATIC HEATING FROM N CNTRL TX THROUGH E CNTRL OK. AXIS OF MID-UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS IS ADVECTING RAPIDLY NWD THROUGH ERN OK BENEATH VERY STEEP 8+ C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM...MLCAPE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED DUE TO PRESENCE OF THE WARM EML. HOWEVER...AS AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING UPPER JET BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE CONVERGENCE AXIS ALONG THE DRYLINE...THE CAPPING LAYER WILL LIKELY MOISTEN AND COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY 20-21Z. COUPLED LOW-MID LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WILL MAINTAIN LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES. ..DIAL.. 04/09/2009
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